May 07, 2020 at 8:45am | Michael Hunter
There are two crises in the country right now, a health crisis that has forced everyone to stay in their homes and a financial crisis caused by our incapability to move around as we would like. Over 30 million people in the U.S. became  unemployed when it was determined that the only way to defeat this terrible virus was to shut down businesses across the nation. One second a person was gainfully employed, a switch flipped, and then the room went dark on their livelihood. The financial pain so many people are facing right now is deep.

How deep will it go? 

Major institutions are forecasting unemployment rates last seen during the Great Depression. Here are a few projections:
  • Merrill Lynch – 10.6%
  • Goldman Sachs – 16%
  • Wells Fargo – 7.3%

How long will the pain go? 

As horrific as those numbers are, there is good news. The pain will be deep, but it won’t last as long as previous crisis.  We can see that 15% unemployment quickly drops to 6-8% as we head into next year, continues to drop, and then returns to about 5% in 2023. When we compare that to the length of time it took to get back to work during both the Great Recession (9 years long) and the Great Depression (12 years long), we can see how the timetable is more favorable now.

It’s horrible to think about how the financial heartache families are going through right now is adding to the uncertainty surrounding their health as well. Hopefully, we will soon have the virus contained and slowly and safely continue to get back to work. 


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